Premises
Technology as a premise for creating future scenarios
Key driver of change
It is rather difficult to define the concept of technology. Many may arrive in great discussions in order to classify what makes an object or an idea become a technology. Technology, in terms of the present-day, is one of the main foundations for the understanding of humanity itself. Hence, defining technology is a hands-on exercise in which implies defining the current embodiment of how humans see themselves. The intrinsic value that technology embedded into the daily routine made that the very concept of its nature turned into a scattered and complex definition rather than simply defining it, for instance, as a tool.
We see technology as the key force for transforming societies and industries, and they are at the core of our methods to scout and analyze the signals that might further happen. Technology is constantly changing our behavior and our way to see and face reality, and Envisioning tries to find connections between how emerging technologies might interfere in the human behavior.
Our role as researchers, editors, experts and consultants, is to understand the shifts that emerging technologies might create in the future.
Researcher Task: Imagine Think of three examples of human behavior that were affected by technology.
What is technology?
Technology is a concept that might be defined in many different ways. At Envisioning, we understand that technology is everything that humans create in order to solve systemic problems. That definition not only applies to things that normally break when we need them, like software and hardware, but also business models, protocols, policies and systems.
Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral. - Melvin Kranzberg
Everything which is not of the natural world is technological. This includes artifacts such as smartphones, supersonic jets and the printing press. However it also includes abstract practices like agriculture, the harnessing of fire, and the concept of money.
Technology affects every aspect of our lives. We depend daily on cities, language, mobility, electricity and countless other technologies so ubiquitous they have become invisible. Millennia of co-evolution leaves us inseparable from this technological infrastructure, locked into a delicate balance of power.
Researcher Task: Technologies as starting points Take a look at Envisioning's list of emerging technologies, pick three and discuss with your peers why they are within our definition of technology.
How technology evolves?
Since technologies are concepts, they ca not die. Uber can be bankrupt in the next few years, but not the sharing economy. However, they do evolve following a process generally called as combinatorial evolution. Every technology is a combination of several different technologies that work together to appear in different types of applications. A smartphone, for example, is a combination of WiFi, touchscreen, artificial intelligence, etc, which are also a combination of other "earlier" technologies.
At Envisioning, we have been mapping this evolution by tracking the technology readiness level over time and creating tools such as networks which make these connections more apparent. During your work with us, your task is lies not only in discovering emerging technologies, but primarily to understand how technology evolves and relates with overall technological developments.
Researcher Task: Interconnection between technologies As an exercise, select a few technologies on TDB and discuss with peers how they are connected.
Combinatorial evolution
The combinatorial evolution occurs when the integration and/or combination of different earlier technologies derived into techniques and applications. It is not whatsoever related to how technologies evolve, but to the genealogy between the whole technological network. The descent of technology is all about combination. Because of that, when analyzing techniques and application, we must always look at:
This structure, borrowed from Mark G. Core when explaining how linguistic mechanisms work for a language to exist, represents the utterance in supplying a combinatorial scheme in the logical circuit of technological developments.
Recommended Reading Check this article to get an example of how technology can shift human behavior.
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